The ANC policy conference will give indications on a wide range of matters, from presidential succession to state capture to land expropriation. Even the songs will indicate the rank and file’s opinions

29 JUNE 2017 – 06:43 NATASHA MARRIAN

The ANC is in for a bruising week of policy discussions as factions square off over SA’s economic direction. The policy conference which starts on Friday is the first national gathering that includes rank and file members since the 2016 local government elections. It will consider reports on the extent of the influence of the Gupta family over President Jacob Zuma’s administration and the economy’s plunge into junk status and recession.

Insiders are increasingly concerned that the divisions in the party will be laid bare during the six-day meeting, particularly around the succession question.

The last national gathering in which policy was discussed was the national general council (NGC) in 2015, when Zuma made the shock revelation that party numbers had dwindled from 1.3m in 2012 to 769,000.

It remains an open race for the ANC leadership — Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s strong opening campaign has started to falter
At the NGC, the ANC took decisions to repair, before the 2017 conference season, the damage to the party in terms of perceptions of corruption as well as its organisational decline. But a look back shows the situation has worsened.

The fight over policy discussions is set to centre on the ANC decision on radical economic transformation, and how far to take that 2012 resolution.

The ANC is in an extremely complex position. Its dominant faction has co-opted a narrative created by Gupta-aligned spin doctor Bell Pottinger, which targeted respected institutions such as national treasury and the Reserve Bank, saying they had been captured by “white monopoly capital”.

However, the motive for this narrative does not have the larger transformation agenda at its core. It is about ridding the state of the last obstacles in the way of looting and capture on a far grander scale.

At the same time, the ANC is facing pressure from the electorate over the sluggish pace of transformation and land reform, due to its own failure to implement its own progressive policies. This failure, and the lack of urgency around addressing this matter ahead of the next national election in 2019, could move the party towards a more populist policy stance: for instance, to adopt a policy on land expropriation without compensation.

This is what the ANC in KwaZulu Natal had to say on Sunday after its provincial policy conference: “[We are] … unanimous in our conviction that land redistribution, without compensation, constitutes the most rational and progressive way towards restoring the dignity of the dispossessed poor masses of our people.”

As KwaZulu Natal we do not subscribe to the notion that the election of a deputy president implies that that comrade is automatically ordained to be a successor to the incumbent. If it were so there would be no need for elections.
Sihle Zikalala
The position of factions in relation to this question will be determined by the candidate they are backing to succeed Zuma in December. For instance, Gauteng ANC chairman Paul Mashatile told the party’s provincial policy conference over the weekend that there was no such thing as “white monopoly capital”, in a bid to shift the inherently racial narrative pushed by the Guptas. He said the party would continue to fight white domination in general.

The frontrunners in the succession battle remain Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa. But there is much behind-the-scenes wrangling, which could lead to shifts in the coming months.

The ANC has failed a key test before its conference begins. It missed a chance to engage with its stalwarts and veterans on how to begin renewing and fixing the organisation.

It refused a request by its elders to hold a consultative conference to thrash out the problems facing the party. The elders have since decided to proceed with the consultative conference on their own, along with other “progressive forces” in society.


ANC leaders are increasingly cynical about the state of the party. Secretary-general Gwede Mantashe said on Friday that removing Zuma would by no means end the malaise in the organisation. He was speaking at the ANC Gauteng policy conference — the provincial gathering most hostile to Zuma and his presidency.

So what is the balance of forces? Who holds the numerical advantage? It remains an open race. Despite a strong start for Dlamini-Zuma, her campaign seems to be faltering.

The weekend provincial policy conferences provided a glimpse but matters are far from set in stone.

The party’s largest province in numbers, KwaZulu Natal, is deeply divided, particularly around the matter of supporting Zuma’s preferred candidate, Dlamini-Zuma, or her rival, Ramaphosa.

The KwaZulu Natal leadership under chairman Sihle Zikalala are strong Zuma backers and took a decision at their provincial policy conference that the deputy president of the party is not automatically entitled to become the president. This was a direct swipe at Ramaphosa, whose backers, in Cosatu and the Northern Cape, have argued that it is ANC tradition for the deputy president to succeed the incumbent.

Zikalala said in the conference closing: “As KwaZulu Natal we do not subscribe to the notion that the election of a deputy president implies that that comrade is automatically ordained to be a successor to the incumbent. If it were so there would be no need for elections.”

This faction will also push for the addition of a second deputy secretary-general to assist with performance monitoring at Luthuli House. Another key issue it will push for is the ratification of mining minister Mosebenzi Zwane’s controversial third iteration of the mining charter. It will also argue for a state bank and the changing of the Reserve Bank’s mandate.

KwaZulu Natal will be supported by the North West, Mpumalanga, the Free State and sections of the Western Cape.

The opposition group largely aligned to Ramaphosa for now includes Gauteng, the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, parts of Limpopo and the majority of the Western Cape. Over the weekend the Eastern Cape took a tough stance against state capture, which can be interpreted as a slight against Zuma. He was meant to address the gathering on Sunday but failed to pitch — another indication that the second-largest province in the party is increasingly adopting an anti-Zuma stance.

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An issue which may be raised at the policy conference is the looming secret ballot in a parliamentary motion of no confidence against Zuma. ANC MPs have said they will not vote against Zuma but many feel his leadership has become “injudicious”, as MP Makhosi Khoza has said.

The policy conference may be the perfect platform to thrash out the issue after the constitutional court, last Thursday, left the ball in speaker Baleka Mbete’s court over whether the vote should be held in secret.

The groups are by no means uniform and much may change on the conference floor or between the policy conference and the national conference in December.

Policies agreed to at the gathering next week will only be ratified at the elective conference in December and will become ANC policy at that stage.

Meanwhile, the party is bracing to manage the deep divisions in its ranks, particularly around its president. Songs sung in his support and against him will provide a key sense of whether the ANC rank and file continue to back the president.

Zuma has said that if the ANC asked him to step down, he would do so. The members at the policy conference will finally get a chance to have their say. (The top leadership has twice thrown its support behind him.)

Their views are set to direct the very course of the governing party and of the country.

 

https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2017-06-29-anc-its-decision-time/